First of all, I just want to say that this is the first season that I followed Australian Survivor and I am really impressed on how this is similar and yet different from the US version. First of all, 55 days in the wild is brutal and at the same time, you have 23 other castaways to go against, this is just hard. I also like the challenges, some were also from the US version but some are original so I really like the challenges here.
So who will win tonight?
Let us look at this in 2 ways. First, let us analyze how each of the three remaining players played the game and then second, let us look at how I think the jury members will vote.
So first, let's look at the players.
I have a bit of bias on Jericho mainly because he is Filipino and a survivor fan as well.
Jericho I think played a good social game. Everyone likes him. He hasn't have any serious confrontation with anyone all through out the season except probably for Michelle in the last stretch before the last tribal council. He is very likeable and has created strong bonds with the other castaways.
He also has good game play. He used his cookie temptation to his advantage by getting Luke, Henry and Sarah's loyalty. He and Luke has orchestrated some of the blindsides in the season - notable once are the Jarrad and Tessa blindsides. I also think he did the right choice in eliminating Tessa since he knows she will always vote for Peter in the final two.
He also speaks well during tribal councils. He always says what the jury needs to hear - being always ready for war, doing what is best for your game and fear nothing. For me, I think he did enough to win the title.
On the other hand, he has a disadvantage on the jury since he never switched tribes until merge. He is in the Asaga tribe from the beginning and he will be in the final 2, he will be against an original Samatau and the jury will be composed of 5 Samatau and 4 Asaga. Some of the Samatau guys known him for only a short time.
Also, being the strongest physically, he will definitely be a target of both Tara and Peter and if he does not win the individual immunity tonight, he will definitely be the last jury member.
Peter is a nice guy but did he play enough to really win the title? To tell you honestly, I cannot remember a single game move that would put Peter as the mastermind. Yes, he was the swing vote in several occassions but I will not put him as one of the guys who dictated the outcome of the tribal council.
He is also a likeable person and has also made strong bonds with other contestants. As I have said, Samatau has a numbers advantage in the jury. His chance also suffered when Tessa was eliminated from the jury by Jericho - which should have been a sure vote for him.
I also don't think he will be able to beat Jericho in an endurance challenge. I do not see him winning the immunity tonight. But will he reach the final two? Yes, I think it will be the best interest of both Jericho and Tara to bring Peter into the final two because they can both beat Peter.
If he wins immunity tonight, I think he will have a better chance against Tara since she flipped a lot and that might be her downfall.
Tara also had a good game considering that she should have been voted out by Samatau in episode 8 where the first tribal swap happened. She found her niche in the Asaga Tribe. She constantly worked her way up the ladder and was the swing vote in several occasions.
Knowing her performance from previous challenge, I would not bet on her winning the endurance challenge for the final immunity. It would be wise for her just to outlast one of the boys and make a deal to give the immunity but make her safe.
She is also in a disadvantage in some of the jury members. I would definitely think Jarrad, Anneliese and Ziggy would probably not vote for her to win. Her social game is definitely has not been at par with Jericho's and will definitely play a lot in the final tribal council.
Next, let us see how I think the jury will vote based on their alliances, voting history and relationships with the remaining castaways:
Jarrad will vote for Peter if he stays. If not he will vote for Jericho.
Annelise will vote for Jericho if he stays, If not she will vote for Peter.
Henry will vote for Jericho if he stays, If not he will vote for Tara.
Sarah will vote for Jericho if he stays, If not she will vote for Tara.
Luke will vote for Jericho if he stays, If not he will vote for Tara.
Ziggy will vote for Peter if he stays, If not she will vote for Jericho.
Locky will vote for Tara if she stays, If not he will vote for Jericho.
Michelle will vote for Jericho if he stays, If not she will vote for Peter.
With that said, I think JERICHO will win this season.
But as we know, there will be a lot of surprises come the final tribal council. I am so excited to watch it tonight!
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